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NFL WEEK2 PREVIEW
Head of sports at BetUSA.com, previews this weekend’s pro football action
Favorite bettors got stung on the NFL last week and the bettors are being a little more wary with their action in week 2 of the NFL. Usually we would expect to see some pretty skewed action towards the chalks (favorites) but only two teams stand out as being really hugely bet this week by the public.
First up in the popularity stakes is the Baltimore Ravens, who have been bet up from an opening -10.5 to -12 as bettors realize how poor the Oakland Raiders – their opponents this week – were in Monday Night Football. 91% of the action so far (at 9am EST on Friday) has been on the Ravens, who destroyed Tampa Bay 27-0 in week one. Oakland of course were shut out by the same scoreline against San Diego so you can see why the number is so high.
I am a big fan of the Ravens this season and regular readers of my BetUSA.com column will know that I tipped them as my ‘surprise team’ of this year. That said, I do start to think a 12 point handicap in week two is a little high. Bettors almost always over-react to teams that are shutout on Sunday or Monday Night Football and I think that if the Ravens had not impressed so much against the Bucs and the Raiders had not been on national TV that this game would otherwise have had a handicap of nearer 9. As someone who has bet them for the Super Bowl at 50-1 (they are now 18-1) I would personally like to see the Ravens win easily but from a business point of view it would be much better if they did not cover the handicap.
Second most popular team with the public is the New Orleans Saints. If you had told me last season that I would be writing that sentence in September 2006 I would have sent you to a psychiatric institution. But yes, the Saints have been bet from -1 to -2.5 for their trip to Lambeau Field and the reason is that the Green Bay Packers are clearly the worst team in the NFL. Fresh off a week one 26-0 mauling by the Bears, the Packers entertain the Saints, who came up with a 19-14 victory over Cleveland. With Favre in freefall I think the bettors have probably got this one right. The Saints look like a team that is rapidly improving while the Packers probably need a couple of years and a new quarterback to really show any sort of form. 89% of the cash so far this week is on the Saints and I think that makes sense.
Elsewhere the cash is much more evenly distributed. At 9am EST on Friday the BetUSA.com pointspread positions were as follows:
Buffalo (+6.5) 42% at Miami (-6.5) 48%
Carolina (-1) 68% at Minnesota (+1) 32%
Cleveland (+10.5) 19% at Cincinnati (-10.5) 81%
Detroit (+9) 48% at Chicago (-9) 52%
Houston (+13.5) 17% at Indianapolis (-13.5) 83%
N.Y. Giants (+3) 71% at Philadelphia (-3) 29%
Tampa Bay (+5.5) 23% at Atlanta (-5.5) 77%
Arizona (+7) 36% at Seattle (-7) 64%
St. Louis (-3) 79% at San Francisco (+3) 21%
Kansas City (+11) 50% at Denver (-11) 50%
New England (-6) 60% at N.Y. Jets (+6) 40%
Tennessee (+12) 20% at San Diego (-12) 80%
Washington (+6) 57% at Dallas (-6) 43%
The main thing we are hoping for at BetUSA.com this week is that there are no more shutouts this week. There were an unprecedented three teams last week that scored no points and as we refund all money line wagers on teams that fail to score it cost us a huge amount of money.
For bettors looking for clues from the linesmaker, I would say that almost always people over-react to the results of week one and that week two favorites tend to be teams that won impressively in week one and that often the line is too high on them. With five teams facing double digit handicaps in week 2, I think it is going to be hard for a majority of them to cover and I am expecting that they and some other big handicap chalks will struggle this week.
Don’t forget that BetUSA.com is offering all clients a free wager on the Super Bowl winner this weekend! You must place a total of five sports bets of or more at BetUSA.com between 1 September and 31 December, 2006 to qualify for this free bet. If you have not placed sufficient bets in this time
period, your stake will simply be returned to you.
Ecobika Sports Betting Picks wish you good luck with your bets at the weekend!
About the Author: If you have not placed sufficient bets in this time
period, your stake will simply be returned to you.
Ecobika Sports Betting Picks wish you good luck with your bets at the weekend!
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